Sains Malaysiana 46(8)(2017): 1333–1339
http://dx.doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2017-4608-20
Aplikasi Model
Baharu Penambahbaikan Pendekatan Kalut ke atas Peramalan Siri Masa Kepekatan Ozon
(New Improved Chaotic
Approach Model Application on Forecasting Ozone Concentration Time Series)
NOR ZILA ABD HAMID1*
& MOHD SALMI MD NOORANI2
1Jabatan Matematik, Fakulti Sains dan Matematik, Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris, 35900 Tanjung Malim,
Perak Darul Ridzuan, Malaysia
2Pusat Pengajian Sains Matematik, Fakulti Sains dan Teknologi,
43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia
Diserahkan: 22 Julai 2016/Diterima: 13 Januari 2017
ABSTRAK
Kajian ini merupakan aplikasi pendekatan kalut ke atas peramalan siri masa bahan pencemar udara ozon di stesen asas Malaysia yang terletak di Jerantut, Pahang. Sebelum model peramalan dibina, siri masa diuji terlebih dahulu sama ada bersifat kalut atau tidak. Melalui plot ruang fasa dan kaedah Cao, siri masa bahan pencemar ozon didapati bersifat kalut bermatra rendah. Oleh itu, model peramalan melalui kaedah penghampiran linear setempat dibina. Sebagai inovasi, model ini ditambah baik. Sebagai perbandingan, model peramalan regresi linear turut dibina. Melalui pengiraan purata ralat mutlak, ralat punca purata kuasa dua dan pekali korelasi, keputusan menunjukkan bahawa model baharu penambahbaikan penghampiran linear setempat adalah lebih baik berbanding model-model yang lain. Maka, penambahbaikan yang dilakukan adalah berbaloi. Dengan itu, pendekatan kalut adalah pendekatan alternatif yang sesuai digunakan bagi membangunkan model peramalan siri masa bahan pencemar ozon. Penemuan model baharu dalam kajian ini diharap dapat membantu memudahkan usaha pihak-pihak berkepentingan dalam menguruskan isu pencemaran udara, khususnya ozon.
Kata kunci: Kaedah penghampiran setempat; Malaysia; ozon; pendekatan kalut; peramalan
ABSTRACT
This study is an application
of chaotic approach on forecasting the ozone air pollutant time
series at Malaysian background station located in Jerantut,
Pahang. Before the forecasting model can be built, the time series
are tested in advance whether the nature is chaotic or not. Through
phase space plot and Cao method, the ozone air pollutant time
series were found to be low in dimensional chaotic. Therefore,
the forecasting model through local linear approximation is constructed.
As an innovation, this model is improved. As comparison, the linear
regression forecasting model was also constructed. By calculating
the mean absolute error, root mean square error and correlation
coefficient, the results showed that the new improved local linear
approximation model is better than the other models. Thus, the
improvement was worth it. Therefore, chaotic approach is an alternative
approach that can be used to contruct forecasting model for ozone
pollutants time series. The discovery of new method in this study
is expected to help facilitate the efforts of stakeholders in
dealing with the issues of air pollution, especially ozone.
Keywords: Chaotic approach; forecasting; local approximation
method; Malaysia; ozone
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*Pengarang untuk surat-menyurat;
email: nor_zila@yahoo.com